Elbows Up or Belly Up: PM Carney’s Test on BC Salmon Farming

Prime Minister Mark Carney faces a defining choice on the future of  BC’s salmon farming sector that will test his promise to keep Canada’s elbows up.

Commentary
By Fabian Dawson

Prime Minister Mark Carney came to power promising to keep Canada’s elbows up on the world stage. But as summer draws to a close, those elbows are starting to sag and Canadians are beginning to notice.

After weeks of back-and-forth tariff talks with the U.S., Carney blinked, dropping most of Canada’s retaliatory measures in the hope of getting a deal done with Washington. So far, Carney’s concession has not yielded any results, leaving Canada facing some of the highest general tariffs in the world.

As Carney met with his cabinet in Toronto last week to plan for the fall session of Parliament, a new Abacus poll gave his critics fresh ammunition, showing Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives slightly ahead of the Liberals for the first time in months.

At the same time, the poll shows nearly half of Canadians feel the country is headed in the wrong direction.

The poll also makes it clear that voters have not given up on Carney’s agenda, but their patience is wearing thin, especially on issues that hit closest to home like food prices, jobs, and housing.

Another recent survey from the Angus Reid Institute showed Carney’s approval rating dropping six points to 51%, while disapproval has climbed 12 points since June. His slipping approval, combined with eroding public confidence in his trade strategy, has turned the political landscape sharply competitive, making this a defining moment for his leadership.

Against this backdrop, Carney has a chance to show Canadians what “elbows up” really means. He needs a clear, decisive win that proves he is willing to fight for Canadian jobs and sovereignty.

Few issues offer a better opportunity than the federal government’s looming decision on British Columbia’s salmon farms.

Ottawa is finalizing its so-called “transition plan” for open-net salmon farms in BC. This process, which Fisheries Minister Joanne Thompson recently described as in its “final stages,” will decide the future of more than 4,500 jobs, $1.17 billion in annual economic output, and a vital source of healthy, affordable protein for Canadians.

It will also determine whether the Carney administration listens to its own scientists or caves to activist pressure that has long relied on fear and misinformation rather than facts.

At the latest Canadian Council of Fisheries and Aquaculture Ministers meeting in Nunavut, Thompson would not say whether Ottawa will reconsider the previous administration’s activist-driven plan to phase out open-net pens in BC after 2029.

The Trudeau-era policies, implemented despite mountains of peer-reviewed science, including research from the government’s own scientists, have already gutted the industry by nearly 45 percent. This has led to the loss of thousands of jobs, the closure of farms, the withdrawal of investments, and devastating economic effects on coastal Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities.

In addition, this year’s record returns of wild salmon in BC prove yet again that the narratives pushed by anti-farming activists do not match reality.

BC’s salmon farmers and their First Nation partners are asking Carney to reverse the politically driven 2029 ban and replace it with a renewed, responsible, Indigenous-led plan.

Under such a framework, the sector could generate $2.5 billion in annual economic output and 9,000 jobs by 2030, growing to $4.2 billion and more than 16,000 jobs by 2040.

This growth can go hand in hand with advances in containment technology and ongoing stewardship agreements with First Nations partners, who are already fully involved in BC’s salmon farming sector.

Carney faces some tough choices this fall if he wants to live up to the “elbows up” promise that helped put him in office. One of the clearest is the future of salmon farming in BC.

He can allow activist narratives and political games to decide the fate of an industry that feeds millions, drives reconciliation, and sustains entire coastal communities. Or he can lead with science and strength, showing Canadians that their government is ready to defend jobs, food security, and sovereignty.

For Carney, that should be the defining line between keeping Canada’s elbows up or watching vital industries, like salmon aquaculture in BC, go belly up.

Main image shows an “Elbows Up Canada Rally” from the Elbows Up Canada Facebook Page