Fraser Sockeye Surge Not Tied to Salmon Farm Closures

Science shows no link between salmon farm closures and Fraser sockeye, yet news outlets continue amplifying misinformation from activist groups.

By Fabian Dawson
SeaWestNews

On the Fraser River this summer, the only thing returning faster than sockeye salmon are the falsehoods pushed by anti-fish-farm activists in British Columbia.

With the fish surging in numbers not seen in over a decade, the usual suspect activist voices are crediting the closure of salmon farms in the Discovery Islands and Broughton Archipelago for the rebound.

“Claiming farm closures caused this year’s Fraser River sockeye returns is misleading,” said Brian Kingzett, Executive Director of BC Salmon Farmers Association (BCSFA).

“The evidence shows no link between farm removals and Fraser sockeye returns. Scientists and federal regulators point instead to rare ocean cycles that boosted survival rates across the entire North Pacific, including regions with no aquaculture at all. 

Scientists suspect favourable marine conditions have played a role this season.”

The Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) is reiterating there is no data connecting farm closures to this year’s strong runs. Decades of research, including the $37-million Cohen Commission, have also found salmon farms pose no more than minimal risk to migrating Fraser sockeye.

Yet media outlets such as The Tyee, Vancouver Sun, Times Colonist and others are repeating these unsubstantiated activist claims under the guise of providing “two sides of the story.” That’s not balance — it’s the amplification of misinformation.

If only the mainstream media would ask the hard questions and publish the answers, Canadians would see a far different picture than the one activists are painting.

Questions Activists Won’t Answer, and the Media Won’t Ask

1. Where’s the proof salmon farms hurt wild salmon?
There is none. Federal risk assessments and multiple peer-reviewed studies have found no population-level impact from salmon farms on wild stocks. Research in 2024 and 2025,  including extensive pathogen and sea lice studies, shows farmed and wild salmon coexist without measurable harm. Long-term sea lice monitoring (2001–2023) shows no change in infestation rates on wild juvenile salmon after farm closures.

2. How did BC get its biggest sockeye run when salmon farms were at peak?
In 2010, 28.2 million sockeye returned to the Fraser, while BC’s salmon farms were producing 90,000 tonnes annually, their all-time high. This record year occurred during the Cohen Commission’s investigation, which concluded farms pose no more than minimal risk to Fraser sockeye.

3. Have Fraser sockeye averages gone up since salmon farming began?
Yes. Pacific Salmon Commission data shows Fraser sockeye averaged 6.54 million returns from 1950–1989. From 1990–2023, which are the decades when farms were operating along migration routes, the average rose to 7.9 million, a 20% increase.

4. Why ignore strong runs in salmon farm-free regions?
Alaska’s Cook Inlet, which has never had open-net farms, is seeing over 11.2 million sockeye this year, nearly double forecasts and 65% above the upper prediction range. The same marine conditions boosting Alaska’s runs are affecting BC.

5. Why are these surges happening in both farmed and farm-free areas?
Because ocean survival, not farm closures, is the primary driver. Scientists point to cooler waters from a rare three-year La Niña (2020–2023) and a “cold tongue” in the Gulf of Alaska, which improved feeding conditions for sockeye and gave them a competitive edge over pink salmon. Cyclonic activity in the region may have further cooled surface waters, favouring sockeye productivity.

6. What science links high returns to salmon farm closures?
None. There are no peer-reviewed studies support the claim. Similar activist talking points about pink salmon, such as Alexandra Morton’s assertion that Ahta River returns rose tenfold as a result of farm removals, have been disproven. Government data shows 2014 had a record-high 68,871 pinks when 12 farms were active nearby, while poor returns in 2020 mirrored coast-wide declines unrelated to aquaculture.

7. Why skip the Cohen Commission’s conclusion?
Because it doesn’t fit the activist narrative. The Cohen Commission’s final report found farms pose no more than minimal risk to Fraser sockeye. This conclusion was reached during a time of both high farm production and record wild returns.

The 2025 Fraser River sockeye surge is not proof of activist claims but proof that when ocean conditions align, salmon are resilient. It also shows that strong returns are happening across the North Pacific in both farmed and farm-free waters, driven by the same environmental forces, not by political decisions to close farms or by activists seeking credit without evidence.

It is time for policymakers and the media to focus on real solutions such as tackling climate change, restoring habitat, and following the science, instead of chasing manufactured narratives from anti-fish-farming activists that do nothing to protect wild salmon.

Main file image from Facebook shows Fraser River sockeye salmon