Seafood Prices Will Climb the Least in 2026 Amid Policy Battles

Seafood is expected to see the smallest price increase next year, even as trade uncertainty and salmon farming policy disputes in BC raise concerns about future supply and affordability.

By Fabian Dawson
SeaWestNews

Seafood is expected to record the smallest price increase of any major grocery category in Canada next year, even as uncertainty over North American trade rules and domestic policy constraints over salmon aquaculture raise concerns about future supply.

Canada’s Food Price Report 2026 said seafood prices will rise by just one to two percent in 2026, compared with five to seven percent for meat and four to six percent overall. The outlook states the average family of four is expected to spend $17,571.79 on food in 2026, an increase of up to $994.63 from last year.

Economists say seafood’s comparatively modest price outlook reflects relatively stable production dynamics. Industry groups caution, however, that this stability depends heavily on predictable access to export markets and regulatory certainty at home.

Those concerns are driving seafood producers to join a broad coalition of agriculture and agri-food organizations calling on Ottawa to commit to a full 16-year renewal of the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).

In a joint letter to the federal government, the coalition said CUSMA has been instrumental in fostering an integrated North American agriculture market, enabling producers to plan investments and operations with greater certainty. The value of agriculture and agri-food trade among Canada, the United States, and Mexico has tripled since 2005, reaching approximately $400 billion in 2023.

More than 60 percent of Canada’s agriculture and agri-food exports are shipped to the United States, which supplies about 20 percent of Canada’s imports in the same categories. Roughly $100 billion in agriculture and agri-food products now crosses the Canada–U.S. border annually.

Seafood trade is particularly exposed. Canada imported more than $1 billion in seafood from the United States in 2023, while U.S. buyers imported more than $3.6 billion in Canadian seafood, making Canada the largest seafood supplier to the U.S. market.

The coalition warned that weakening CUSMA’s sanitary and phytosanitary rules, biotechnology provisions, technical barriers to trade disciplines, or dispute settlement mechanisms would erode the science-based frameworks that underpin that trade.

Aquaculture and seafood organizations were among the signatories, including the Canadian Aquaculture Industry Alliance, BC Salmon Farmers Association, Atlantic Canada Fish Farmers Association, BC Shellfish Growers Association, Aquaculture Association of Nova Scotia, Association des Aquaculteurs du Québec, Newfoundland Aquaculture Industry Association, Ontario Aquaculture Association, and the PEI Aquaculture Alliance.

The trade appeal comes as Canada’s aquaculture sector reported growth in 2024.

National sales of aquaculture products and services rose 8.8 percent year over year to $1.4 billion, driven largely by gains in Newfoundland and Labrador, where sales increased 41.9 percent, and New Brunswick, up 11.2 percent. Production of farmed finfish increased 11.6 percent to 122,280 tonnes, while total value rose 8.4 percent to $1.2 billion despite lower average prices.

For the first time since national reporting began in 1991, combined Atlantic Canadian finfish production exceeded that of British Columbia, with output in the Atlantic provinces rising 18.5 percent. British Columbia’s finfish production increased 6.3 percent, but its share of national production fell to 44.7 percent, the lowest level on record.

Exports of Canadian farmed Atlantic salmon rose 15.9 percent to 74,719 tonnes in 2024, with export values climbing to $944.5 million. The United States accounted for 93.5 percent of those exports by volume.

That reliance has sharpened concerns in British Columbia, where approximately 70 percent of farm-raised salmon is destined for U.S. markets. Industry analysts have warned that a disruption to American demand could cut sales by as much as 40 percent, potentially reducing revenues by up to $142 million each year and costing between 1,100 and 1,195 jobs.

At the same time, long-term planning for the West Coast salmon sector has slowed as farmers and suppliers contend with frozen site approvals and ongoing regulatory uncertainty. Since 2020, federal policy changes have resulted in the closure of about 45 percent of British Columbia’s salmon farms.

The federal plan to remove marine salmon farms from the West Coast by 2029 has continued to cloud investment decisions, trigger layoffs, and strain long-standing economic agreements with First Nations, while pushing production to other regions and countries.

B.C.’s salmon farmers and their First Nations partners say clear, evidence-based federal and provincial policies would allow the sector to rebuild and expand, generating up to $2.5 billion annually in economic activity, $930 million in GDP, and 9,000 jobs nationwide.

Instead, industry estimates show that uncertainty tied to the proposed 2029 ban and the absence of a stable regulatory framework has already resulted in more than $437 million in lost annual spending by aquaculture vendors in British Columbia.

(Main image courtesy of CAIA)