Why PM Mark Carney Needs to Ditch the Plan to Ban Salmon Farms in BC

Ending the proposed ocean salmon farming ban in BC is the clearest signal PM Mark Carney can send to show that his environmental policy on aquaculture will be guided by evidence, not activism.

Commentary
By Fabian Dawson
SeaWestNews

Canada’s plan to eliminate ocean salmon farming in British Columbia by 2029 was sold as precautionary environmental policy. Five years on, the evidence points elsewhere.

The proposed phase-out has produced no measurable benefits for wild salmon. What it has produced is prolonged regulatory uncertainty that is eroding coastal economies, weakening Indigenous-led partnerships, and pushing Canada out of a global food system it helped build.

If Prime Minister Mark Carney is serious about grounding policy in evidence rather than ideology, repealing the planned ban as Canada enters 2026 is the necessary starting point.

According to StatsCan, national aquaculture sales rose nearly nine percent in 2024 and finfish production climbed more than eleven percent, while British Columbia moved in the opposite direction. Since 2020, activist-driven federal decisions have shut down roughly 45 percent of BC’s salmon farms, hollowing out the province’s role in a sector growing almost everywhere else.

National production remains well below historical highs, and for the first time Atlantic Canada now produces more farmed finfish than British Columbia.

That divergence was the result of sustained   activist pressure on Trudeau-era policymakers, amplified by foreign-funded campaigns that recast salmon farming as a public enemy despite mounting scientific evidence to the contrary.

Salmon farming supports roughly 4,500 full-time jobs in British Columbia, including more than 500 Indigenous positions, many in remote coastal communities with few alternative employers. These are year-round jobs that support housing, training, and local services.

Yet federal policy uncertainty has chilled investment across the supply chain. More than 70 coastal businesses have warned the proposed ban has already erased over $437 million a year in vendor spending, pushing Vancouver Island communities toward an economic breaking point.

The environmental case for a ban has also grown thinner over time, even as activist rhetoric has intensified.

Industry and government sustainability reporting show antibiotic use at historic lows, improved fish survival, stronger feed standards, and tighter monitoring of escapes and sea lice. These are  measurable outcomes verified through regulatory oversight, unlike the claims by activist groups.

Peer-reviewed science has punctured the central justification for the phase-out. A recent study synthesizing more than 20 years of data found marine net-pen salmon farms in British Columbia have at most, minimal impacts on wild salmon populations. Co-authored by six senior fish health experts from across the Pacific Coast, the research challenges policies built on selective science rather than long-term evidence. It also reinforces what government scientists have been telling policymakers in Ottawa.

Other long-term studies go further, showing sea lice levels on juvenile wild salmon can be highest in regions with no salmon farms at all, pointing to broader oceanographic and ecological drivers rather than simple proximity to aquaculture sites.

None of this suggests aquaculture is risk-free. It shows risks have been reduced and are increasingly manageable. The policy choice is whether to drive further improvement through regulation and innovation, or to abandon a sector that has made measurable environmental gains.

Ottawa’s preferred alternative, large-scale land-based salmon farming, remains economically and technically unproven in British Columbia. Government-commissioned assessments flag high energy costs, infrastructure constraints, unresolved waste management challenges, and scalability risks. The people who have tried it say land-based salmon farms are not a fit for BC.

Betting coastal economies on systems that are not yet viable is not environmental leadership. It is risk displacement. Elsewhere, governments facing the same trade-offs are recalibrating, not retreating.

In Argentina’s southernmost province of Tierra del Fuego, lawmakers recently amended a 2021 ban on salmon farming after economic decline and rising poverty forced reassessment. The province has reintroduced aquaculture under strict environmental controls and a new government oversight body, with officials projecting up to 4,500 jobs and US$400 million in investment over the next decade.

Scotland offers another contrast. The Scottish Government has tightened environmental rules while continuing to treat salmon farming as a strategic industry. Aquaculture’s gross value rose 30 percent with salmon accounting for 95 percent of the sector. When supply chains and induced spending are included, Scottish salmon now contributes more than £950 million annually.

The United States is moving in the same direction. Bipartisan legislation before Congress would establish a science-based framework for offshore aquaculture in federal waters, explicitly linking expansion to food security and coastal economic resilience.

Globally, the direction is unmistakable. From Norway and Chile to New Zealand, Australia, and emerging producers across Asia and Africa, governments are reinforcing ocean-based aquaculture  through stricter regulation, longer licences, public R&D investment, and clearer planning frameworks. Even where activism has slowed projects, food-security pressures and economic realities are forcing reassessment.

Canada stands increasingly alone, relying instead on rising imports from jurisdictions willing to regulate marine aquaculture rather than prohibit it.

Perhaps the most troubling consequence of the proposed ban is its impact on Indigenous self-determination. Many First Nations in BC entered salmon farming partnerships by choice, using revenues to fund housing, create long-term jobs, and reverse decades of economic marginalization. A federally imposed phase-out overrides those decisions and replaces rural economic agency with political prescription designed to harvest urban votes.

B.C.’s salmon farmers and their First Nations partners say a stable, evidence-based federal and provincial framework would allow the sector to grow again, generating up to $2.5 billion a year in economic activity, $930 million in GDP, and as many as 9,000 Canadian jobs.

For Prime Minister Mark Carney, leadership now means reversing his predecessor’s habit to govern by outsourcing aquaculture policy to well-funded campaign groups and armchair warriors far removed from coastal realities.

Repealing the proposed 2029 ban also does not mean preserving the status quo. It means replacing an arbitrary, politically driven deadline with a performance-based framework shaped by science. Set clear environmental standards. Enforce them rigorously. Reward those who meet or exceed them. Remove those who do not.

That is how Canada should regulate complex resource sectors.

Ending the proposed 2029 ocean salmon farming ban in BC is the clearest signal PM Mark Carney can send to show that his environmental policy will be guided by evidence, not ideology.

Main image shows Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in his office