A new economic outlook warns Vancouver Island has reached the limits of population-driven growth. To sustain jobs and families in coastal communities, the region needs export industries like aquaculture that bring new dollars into the economy.
By Fabian Dawson
SeaWestNews
Aquaculture remains one of the most important economic pillars for many coastal communities on Vancouver Island, yet its future hangs in limbo as Ottawa delays clear policy direction.
The uncertainty comes at a time when the broader Island economy is slowing, private investment is weakening, and the foundations of regional prosperity are shifting, said MNP economist Susan Mowbray in her latest State of the Island report delivered at the Vancouver Island Economic Alliance Summit in Nanaimo.
For decades, salmon farming, shellfish harvesting, and the emerging seaweed sector have offered stable, year-round employment in regions where forestry cycles rise and fall, mining has disappeared, and tourism remains seasonal. Aquaculture creates export revenue that supports coastal services, trades, transportation companies, barge operators, processors, technicians, and small businesses. The sector brings new money into the economy rather than simply circulating dollars within the service sector.
Salmon farming in BC currently generates $1.17 billion in annual economic activity. It supports 4,560 full-time jobs. All salmon farms operate in formal partnerships with First Nations. The sector offers careers paying above the provincial median wage and allows people to work in the communities they call home.
But new investment has stalled. Federal policies influenced by activist pressure, including a proposed ban on marine salmon farms in 2029, have created an environment of uncertainty. Ottawa has said the sector must transition to closed containment, without a clear timeline or a viable economic framework.
“The future for farmed salmon is uncertain because the decision has been made that it is closed containment. It’s not clear that that’s economically viable,” Mowbray told delegates. Companies cannot plan decades of infrastructure development without clarity. “Nobody’s willing to make investments because of all that uncertainty,” she said.
This pause is happening while the Island’s economic base is shifting in ways that increase vulnerability. Goods-producing sectors are not expanding. Forestry’s footprint has contracted. The Island no longer has an active mining industry. Construction is slowing. Tourism has recovered but remains seasonal and sensitive to costs and staffing pressures.
Meanwhile, publicly funded employment is growing faster than private-sector job creation. Mowbray noted that “the ratio of public sector to private sector jobs is two to one,” meaning the Island is becoming more dependent on government-funded services and less on export-driven industries that create wealth.
“We are not producing a lot of things that are bringing money into the province from the outside,” she said. And “over-reliance on population growth and housing construction has put us in a situation that is not sustainable.”
Aquaculture is one of the few sectors that can help reverse that trend.
Global demand for sustainably produced seafood continues to rise. Countries like Norway, Chile, and Scotland are scaling aquaculture through innovation and long-term planning. Vancouver Island has the coastline, the Indigenous leadership, and the workforce to compete. What is missing is regulatory stability.
Mowbray’s long-term demographic outlook shows why this matters. Population growth on the Island is projected to slow to around 13 percent, while almost one-quarter of residents will be over age 70 by 2045. This means fewer workers, higher costs, and more pressure on services. Without strong export industries like aquaculture, Vancouver Island will struggle to maintain living standards.
Her conclusion was direct: “The foundation upon which our prosperity is built is starting to crumble.” But she also pointed toward the path forward. “We need to be making investments in things that improve our productivity.” And “any time there is a shock, there is also an opportunity.”
VIEA leaders say the region is entering a phase where collaboration and strategy are essential. This year’s Summit marks the start of a multi-year process to co-create a Vision 2050 regional economic strategy. “We need to decide what kind of economy we want to build,” organizers said.
Mowbray’s message underscored the moment. The Island can no longer rely on population growth, real estate activity, and expanding publicly funded jobs. Those conditions have reached their limit. To protect living standards, the Island needs industries that export to global markets, attract private capital, and support working families in rural and coastal regions.
Brian Kingzett, Executive Director of the BC Salmon Farmers Association, said the right regulatory stability could allow the sector to responsibly scale. He noted that salmon farming alone could double its output by 2030, generating about $2.5 billion in annual economic activity, adding $930 million to GDP, and supporting 9,000 jobs with $560 million in wages.
Reflecting Mowbray’s warning that the Island needs new dollars and productive investment, the sector said these numbers point to salmon farming as a functioning economic engine that brings revenue in from global markets and helps keep coastal communities working and viable.
(Main image shows MNP economist Susan Mowbray – VIEA Facebook)