New OECD-FAO and World Bank reports champion seafood farming as key to feeding the planet, but Canada’s aquaculture sector remains paralysed by political indecision.
By Fabian Dawson
SeaWestNews
Canada’s aquaculture industry, anchored by its world-class salmon farms, is at a standstill as soaring global seafood demand clashes with domestic policy uncertainty at home, warns a new international forecast on food production.
According to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034, aquaculture is set to become the dominant source of aquatic animal protein for global consumption, surpassing wild capture and accounting for more than 57% of all fish and seafood eaten by 2032.
The report highlights that this growth will be led by rising incomes, expanding urban markets, and a global shift toward sustainable seafood. However, the outlook also underscores a stark warning: countries that do not create a predictable policy environment for aquaculture will be left behind.
“Aquaculture production growth is expected to be concentrated in countries where the policy environment, investment in infrastructure, and access to finance support the sustainable expansion of the sector,” the report stated.
Between 2022 and 2034, global aquaculture production is projected to grow by 23%, while capture fisheries are expected to stagnate due to resource constraints and environmental pressures. The sharpest gains will come from farmed finfish like salmon, shellfish, and seaweed, all sectors that will benefit directly from technological innovation, improved feed conversion, and stronger science-based regulatory frameworks.
According to the report, by 2034, total global fish production is forecast to reach 202 million tonnes, with aquaculture contributing 115 million tonnes—a level of output that will not only meet the growing dietary demand for animal protein but also help ease the pressure on overexploited marine ecosystems.
In this context, Canada’s salmon farming sector, already ranked among the world’s most sustainable, is strategically positioned to lead, notes the report. Yet, recent aquaculture policy decisions, including the activist-driven proposed ban on marine salmon farms in British Columbia run counter to the global trend.
Here are some of the other key findings of the report, released today:
- Global fish consumption is set to rise by 11% by 2034, driven by population growth, higher incomes, and increasing awareness of seafood’s health and environmental benefits. Per capita fish consumption is expected to reach 21.3 kilograms, up from 20.6 kg in the 2022–24 baseline.
- Prices for farmed species are projected to trend upward over the decade, outpacing those of capture species. This is largely due to increased feed costs, climate-related production risks, and growing demand from health- and climate-conscious consumers.
- Feed efficiency will become a critical differentiator. Aquaculture operations that invest in alternative proteins, genetic improvements, and data-driven management will outcompete producers relying on traditional systems. Canada has an edge here, with salmon producers already pioneering innovations in feed, genomics, and hybrid marine/closed-containment technologies.
- Trade in fish and fishery products is forecast to increase by 14%, reaching nearly 54 million tonnes (live weight equivalent) by 2034. Export growth will be driven primarily by aquaculture-producing countries with established trade infrastructure, another area where Canada has existing capacity but risks losing ground without stable federal policy.
- The report also highlights growing vulnerabilities tied to climate change, geopolitical shocks, and inflation, all of which disproportionately impact capture fisheries. In contrast, aquaculture, when supported by science-based governance, offers greater resilience and supply stability.
- Canada’s potential to meet the world’s rising demand for low-carbon protein from the sea is immense. But without consistent policy leadership and a clear regulatory framework, the country could see its competitive advantages erode while global competitors surge ahead.
The Canadian Aquaculture Industry Alliance (CAIA) in its latest production and trade data report said the nation’s farmed seafood production, which generates over $5.3 billion in economic activity and $2 billion in GDP, has plunged to its lowest level in a decade.
“The loss in overall production—which has deepened in 2024—is the result of non-science-based and unnecessary federal government actions to reduce salmon production in British Columbia,” said the national association that speaks for Canada’s seafood farmers.
“With the world’s greatest capacity for cold water aquaculture, Canada can either be at the front of the world with innovation and opportunity or be on the wrong side of history,” said Timothy Kennedy, President & CEO of CAIA.
“Canada is only using one percent of its viable ocean area for seafood farming development. In comparison, Norway has about a third of the ocean potential of Canada, while its output is almost twenty times the farmed seafood production of Canada,” he said.
Today’s OECD-FAO outlook, follows the recent World Bank report – “Harnessing the Waters: Sustainable Aquaculture” – which presented aquaculture as the fastest-growing food production sector, with a potential $1.5 trillion investment opportunity capable of generating 22 million new jobs worldwide by 2050.
With the OECD, the FAO, and the World Bank all identifying aquaculture as a cornerstone of global food security and economic growth, Canada’s seafood farmers are calling on Prime Minister Mark Carney to chart a bold new course for the sector.
They are urging the federal government to:
- Transfer aquaculture oversight to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) to align the industry with a ministry focused on sustainable growth and innovation;
- Establish a science-based path forward for salmon farming in British Columbia that delivers real environmental results, restores investor confidence, creates jobs, and respects the decision-making authority of rights-holder First Nations;
- Modernize the federal shellfish management regime to unlock economic potential and remove outdated regulatory obstacles.
“Canada can either stand still and watch this opportunity pass us by, or act decisively to secure our food systems, grow the economy, and revitalize coastal communities,” said Kennedy of the Canadian Aquaculture Industry Alliance.
“With the right framework for growth, we can make great things happen.”
(File photo courtesy of the Aquaculture Stewardship Council)