The Carney government must conduct a comprehensive assessment of consumer costs and national food security before proceeding with the plan to ban conventional ocean salmon farming in British Columbia by 2029, warns a leading Canadian food economist.
By Fabian Dawson
SeaWestNews
Ottawa is being challenged to explain how Canadians will afford salmon and where future supplies will come from if the Carney government proceeds with plans to shut down conventional ocean salmon farming in British Columbia by 2029.
With salmon prices surging and imports climbing, the country’s leading food economist Dr. Sylvain Charlebois warns that the economic consequences of the Trudeau-era policy could be far greater than previously anticipated.
In an interview with SeaWestNews, Charlebois, senior director of Dalhousie’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab, said the federal government must conduct a comprehensive assessment of the impact on grocery prices, domestic seafood production and Canada’s growing dependence on foreign suppliers before implementing the ban.
“Every time there’s a policy shift, Ottawa should have the obligation to assess how food security can be impacted over time domestically as a result of these measures,” he said.
“Often, they’ll make decisions in isolation without really understanding or measuring the impact on other spheres of our lives, and most importantly, food.”
Asked whether he was aware of any federal consumer impact assessment examining what the planned June 30, 2029, ban would mean for grocery prices, seafood imports and Canadian food security, Charlebois replied: “No, I’m not aware of any studies.”
His warning comes as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government reviews the future of B.C. salmon farming as coastal First Nations, industry leaders and communities call for a reversal the policy, which threatens approximately 4,560 full-time jobs and $1.17 billion in annual economic activity.
An economic analysis commissioned by the BC Salmon Farmers Association (BCSFA) estimates that the ban could expose Canadian taxpayers to more than $9 billion in compensation claims, financial losses and subsidies for alternative farming technologies. The report also projects that more than 1,400 B.C. suppliers could lose $437 million in annual business, while First Nations could face more than $1 billion in financial losses over the next decade.
Charlebois said Ottawa must weigh its environmental objectives against the economic consequences of restricting domestic food production.
“So, if we are concerned about environmental risks, fine. But let’s actually look and measure the consequences.”
Charlebois’s demand for greater scrutiny comes as Atlantic salmon prices climb sharply at Canadian grocery stores, adding to concerns that the country is becoming increasingly vulnerable to international seafood markets.
In July, Dalhousie’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab reported that Atlantic salmon prices had jumped 25.8 per cent in a single month, one of the largest increases among 50 common grocery products tracked across 13 Canadian cities.
The surge stood in sharp contrast to the overall grocery basket, which rose just 0.3 per cent during the same period, while 30 of the 50 products tracked became cheaper.
The findings were previously reported by SeaWestNews in an examination of the contradiction between Ottawa’s food security ambitions and its plans to restrict Canadian salmon production.
Now, revisiting his research into the consequences of declining Canadian salmon production, Charlebois says the risks for consumers have become more serious.
“Salmon prices have actually skyrocketed over the summer,” he said.
He warned that Canada’s growing reliance on imported seafood is exposing consumers to currency fluctuations and international market pressures.
In 2025, Canada imported more than $1 billion worth of salmon, about $71 million more than the previous year. Imports included $41.1 million from China, up 39 per cent from $29.5 million a year earlier, even though much of the salmon shipped from China originates elsewhere and is processed there before being exported.
Meanwhile, farmed salmon production in B.C. has fallen by more than 40 per cent since 2015 following successive federal decisions that removed farms from the Discovery Islands and Broughton Archipelago.
Charlebois’s warning puts renewed scrutiny on the Carney government’s approach to Canada’s food supply.
Brian Kingzett, executive director of the BC Salmon Farmers Association, made that case following Dalhousie’s July grocery price survey.
“Salmon remains Canada’s most consumed seafood,” he said. “The data clearly shows demand is strong. With long-term regulatory certainty, Canada has a real opportunity to produce more of this food at home.”
The association estimates that with regulatory certainty and renewed investment, B.C. salmon farming could generate up to $2.5 billion in annual economic output and support about 9,000 jobs by 2030.
By 2040, those industry projections rise to $4.2 billion in annual economic activity and more than 16,000 jobs.
More than 1,000 Indigenous people work directly or indirectly in salmon farming, while the sector delivers an estimated $134 million annually in economic benefits to First Nations. Every active salmon farm in B.C. operates under an agreement with the Rights-holder First Nation in whose territory it is located.
Charlebois’s research team also warned that replacing Canadian-grown salmon with imports could carry a significant environmental cost.
Its original study estimated that increased salmon imports generated an additional 9.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions in 2022 compared with 2020, equivalent to the annual emissions of more than 2.1 million vehicles.
The feasibility of replacing B.C.’s existing marine production with land-based salmon farms also remains uncertain.
B.C. government assessments of alternative aquaculture technologies found that few land-based salmon farms worldwide had reached commercial production exceeding 2,500 tonnes annually, while most had yet to demonstrate sustained profitability.
Charlebois said these uncertainties reinforce the need to calculate the full economic and environmental consequences of the planned ban.
He also believes the B.C. salmon farming dispute reveals how poorly Canada’s ocean-based food economy is understood.
While governments increasingly emphasize food sovereignty, domestic agriculture and supply-chain security, he said seafood production rarely receives the same political attention.
“We’re all about food sovereignty and food economy these days, and there’s very little talk about the blue economy.”
He said the sector is geographically distant from most Canadians and poorly understood outside coastal communities.
“It’s far away. It’s rarely seen. It’s misunderstood by most Canadians.”
“Before Ottawa eliminates a major source of Canadian-grown seafood, it must calculate the consequences and show Canadians what the decision will cost them.”
(Main file image shows Dr. Dr. Sylvain Charlebois senior director of Dalhousie’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab.)